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The CO2 increment since 1958 has been about 12 ppmv; the climatic effect of man-generated CO2 should therefore be a warming of about 0.07°C. arnumber=5217849 Atmospheric carbon dioxide, which amounts to 320 parts per million (ppm) by volume, rather than being a pollutant, is essentially a thread of life woven through the globe on which we live.
Since 1940, however, the global atmospheric temperature has been decreasing – an indication that other factors (such as atmospheric dust) are of much greater importance in determining the overall heat balance of the world. Callendar, 1961 It is thought that the regional and zonal distribution of recent climatic trends is incompatible with the hypothesis of increased solar heating as the cause.
On the other hand, the major features of this distribution are not incompatible with the hypothesis of increased carbon dioxide radiation, if the rate of atmospheric mixing between the hemispheres is a matter of decades rather than years. Vardavas and Carter, 1985 The response of the Earth’s global mean vertical atmospheric temperature structure to large increases in the atmospheric CO concentration was examined using a 1-D radiative-convective atmospheric model.
The magnitude of this negative feed-back effect of atmospheric CO2 upon itself depends on many ecological interactions which have yet to be disentangled.
The effect could be negligibly small, or it could be as large as 3 x 10 tons of carbon per yr.
Such attempts are useful and necessary, hut they run into formidable technical difficulties.
Even the mean global temperature rise caused by a given quantity of CO2 is subject to great uncertainty: and the effects of CO2 on local and time-variable phenomena (which may be crucially important to agriculture and other human activities) are more uncertain still. It appears that the much larger changes predicted by other models arise from additional water vapor evaporated into the atmosphere and not from the CO2 itself. It is important to stress…that CO2 is not the main constituent involved in infrared transfer.Chief among these are the increase in global carbon dioxide and the generation of waste heat.Their effects are judged to be noticeable but not serious at this time. Barrett, 1978 particular, detection of an anthropogenic influence through statistical analysis alone requires a long run of data of good quality and careful attention to measures of significance.The conclusion is that at low latitudes the influence of doubling CO2 on surface temperatures is less than 0.25 K —– 208.Singer, 1975 We describe here the uses of various forms of energy, historical and future trends, and especially the various environmental effects.In summary, there is insufficient evidence to decide whether the carbon content of the biosphere has decreased, increased or remained stationary in response to the manifold human activities of recent decades.